Every weekend, I enjoy a nice evening with a circle of my close friends. We talk about our week, life, and businesses. Yet, the most important topic that attracts our attention is the stock market. When markets are up, we have an upbeat evening, with everyone bragging about a story that showcase his unparalleled intelligence, and heroic action in realizing a nice profit through making a few trades in the stock market. On the other hand, when markets are down, men turn into castrated stallions, hurt by a stranger’s hand that permanently mutated their financials, crying conspiracy of investment banks, blaming hedge funds and big rich guys and governments for their financial misery.
If you follow the news recently, you have an idea how our recent soirees have been. A friend would promise that he would never touch the stock market again, while the other, in violent agreement, curse the day he opened a trading account. While my portfolio has been hurt, like any other investor in the market, thanks to the recent financial gyration of world financial markets, and the incapability of world politicians in handling their respective economies, I would like to pause and think about the recent world events from a different lens. A very unconventional one…
2012 is around the corner. If you are a bookworm, like myself, you have probably come across some of Nostradamus prophecies, as well as, Mayan predictions of doomsday events to occur in 2012. While it is conceivable to shrug off these predictions as storytelling, and baseless soothsaying, they have certainly captivated the imaginations of millions of people around the world, including prominent thriller writers, Hollywood producers, and of course, conspiracy theorists. I wonder why real-deal investors haven’t really taken these predictions seriously?
The commonalities of the above-mentioned prophecies stipulate that 2012 would witness the end of the world as we know it. We need to focus on the “as we know it” a little more. With the European Union on the verge of collapse, and the United States on the brink of potential debt default, it seems very realistic to assume that both events – if materialized - would have drastic implication over the Chinese economy as well, since China is the largest debt holder of US treasuries, as well as, USA and EU are significant contributors to the Chinese economy as they are its largest customers. In the Middle East, a new reality is being shaped up with the collapse of authoritarian regimes with the rise of the voice of its people, and the struggle between Israel and Palestine is taking a new turn with the Palestinian application for statehood. In Africa, a growing famine and lack of water supplies, could instigate a water war that no one could determine its outcome or implication. All of these events, while not certain to materialize, we can agree that they are not pure fiction, and could occur in – let’s say – year 2012, prompting a true change to the world “as we know it”!
Indeed, if the stars aligned with the above-mentioned unlikely events, spurring some unforeseen natural disasters and calamities, like the Japanese tsunami, or Icelandic volcanoes, we could be in for a very bumpy ride that no economy, or individual would be immune from.
While I don’t possess any crystal ball that confirms that any of the above events are imminent, nor I consider myself a chicken little running around screaming the “sky is falling”, I surely attempt to answer some nagging questions. How should a small investor prepare for such a speculative doomsday scenario? How could we survive financially such hypothetically sweeping times that no history book can offer us any insight or guidance?
In my humble opinion, the near future would be all about survival. If you imagine yourself locked down in a disaster scenario at your home, what would you need to survive until the community is back up, and the economy is re-ignited? You would need: food, water, and oil for energy. You may need as well some medicine to keep you healthy. If I translate this survival need into investment jargon I would say the investment landscape in the near term would benefit the recessionary proof companies in pharmaceutical, food and food commodities, and oil and gas sectors. These are the essential services that people would continue to require regardless of the geo-political or economical environment state.
The next question would be, how to invest in these sectors? Should we buy stocks of these companies like we do in the world “as we know it”? What would happen to the companies if the doomsday scenario prevailed? What would happen to the US dollar? What would even happen to the shipping companies, railroads, and other essential services that we rely on to transport all that we need?
Since I am no Nostradamus, I have no mechanism to know the answer to any of the above questions. You could; however, start with a trip to your local Costco store and stockpile some of the physical food and beverage containers and store them in your basement. Nevertheless, for now, I am sticking with stocks.
I think that buying stocks during these uncharted times offers the minimum risk for a very simple reason; if doomsday were merely a figment of some ancient civilization’s imagination, then things would turn around nicely to investors’ favor. If doomsday were indeed a reality, and here to stay, then investors would be bound to lose their money in anyway – in best scenario…