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Friday, July 9, 2010

FIFA World Cup 2010 (South Africa), My Daily Updates

June 15, 2010 

Another day of great soccer has gone by. No major surprises in the score-line, except for North Korea giving Brazil a hard time, despite all the odds. However, with Portugal and Ivory Coast tie, it means that this group of death is far from over.

June 17, 2010 
Oh La La! Les Bleus and Al Matadors were brutally defeated at the hands of inferior opponents, individual silly mistake cost Nigeria the tournament, and the vuvuzela could not save the Bufana Bufana from Forlan and company!

More drama is on the way in the World Cup as USA will face Slovenia in a must win match up, and England will try to save face against Algeria tomorrow. Yet, be ready to treat your eyes watching Germany taking on Serbia.

June 22, 2010 
With a broken heart, and teary eyes, I relay to you the sad news that France has surrendered and left the world cup. Yet, France did not fail to amaze and amuse the world not on, but off the pitch, with the players-against-coach saga that started with Anelka (France supposedly top scorer) using 'langue sauvage' with his coach, Anelka's sent home to Paris, and the players walking away from training session. As France qualified to the world cup with controversy (Henry's infamous hand ball goal against Ireland), it leaves with another controversy. Thank you France for the wonderful, entertaining drama, and bon chance a la prochaine fois!

Brazil and Argentina continue their football domination, and plaguing their opponents with attacks and goals. This is expected from the masters. On the other hands, stakes are high now for Spain and Germany as they must win their next games to stay on in the tournament. England continues to prove my point that they are nothing but an overrated, overpaid, and mediocre team. Rooney - so called top scorer - did nothing but whining and complaining. Italy met the expectation of producing nothing but dramatic defensive football.

June 23, 2010 
With an out of this world goal by the LA Galaxy top scorer, Donovan, USA made a dramatic come back and qualified to the round of 16, rendering Bill Clinton's trip all the way to South Africa worthwhile. Now USA, sitting at the top of group C, will be anxiously watching the afternoon games of the undecided group D to know if USA will be facing the Germans, Serbians, or the Ghanians in the round of 16.

Donovan's goal has proven to be earth shattering with an impact felt across the globe, hitting Toronto with a 5.5. earthquake! Now USA will be facing Ghana in the second round, while England - yes they did manage to score a goal - will be playing its arch enemy, Germany. While the Socceroos managed to hop over Serbia with a 2-1 win, their humiliating loss to Germany 0-4 in the first game haunted their chances to join the ranks of top 16 on goal differential that favored Ghana.

June 24, 2010 
With a couple of Made in Japan, laser sharp precision set pieces, the Asian nation mastered two goals in the Danish net, and has assertively joined its neighbor, South Korea, in checking in the order of 16. In the process, the Danes were sent off on their Viking ships to their home shores, unable to provide an answer to the Samurai attack.

In this world cup, the Asian nations, Japan and Korea, have proven that Asian football has come along way, and now they are to be taken seriously as major contenders.

The Dutch team has managed to quietly win all of their 3 games to perch comfortably on top its group.

As this world cup continues to amuse us with unscripted drama that puts Reality TV to shame, the Azures were having an appointment with destiny this morning. The ruling champions of 2006 world cup were wrapped in disgrace when they were dethroned of their title by the least of their opponents, the humble soccer nation of Slovakia. The Slovaks mortified the Italians three times this morning with three killer goals to guarantee that the unimaginative and uncreative Italian team was send packing their Armani suits, and joining their runner-up playmates, the French, in changing their travel booking in to an earlier trip home.

June 25, 2010 
The Almatadors hunted down their spot in the second round, along with Chile, eliminating the Swiss who melted down like their chocolate in front of the Honduran squad. In the other group, Portugal tied the country they discovered in an uneventful match, saving their prospects of reaching the second round to meet their arch neighbor's, Spain, in one of the most promising Second round games!

America will be playing Ghana in the second round on Saturday in a very winnable match.

Dave Cameron may try to avoid meeting with Merkel in Toronto over the weekend, but his boys will surely be meeting hers on the pitch in South Africa on Sunday.

June 28, 2010 
As the world cup has entered the knock-out stages, the thrill has just begun. Tie is no longer an option, and players must put it all on the pitch, seeking honor to their homeland, and personal glory. Sadly, USA team has run out of steam, and lost to Ghana in the extra time.

Sunday was the day of exposing FIFA's shameful refereeing standards, and its stubbornness in refusing to allow technology to play a role in sorting out tough, significant calls, which was exemplified by disallowing a perfectly, legitimate goal by Lampard, and calling a clear off-side goal for Argentina. Yet, it seemed that the English players were grateful for disallowing the goal, so that they would have an excuse for their loss to Germany, which showed no mercy to its opponent, crushing them with 4 goals. Argentina's tango thrived in South Africa after receiving two gifted goals, one by the referee, and the other by the Mexican defender.

Today, the Netherlands are heading to Port Elizabeth to meet up with the formidable Brazil in the quarter finals, after an easy win against Slovakia. Brazil did the inevitable, and eliminated its South American neighbor, Chile, with three entertaining goals.

June 29, 2010 
Paraguay shattered the Japanese dream of reaching the quarter finals for the first time, and hustled their way to a spot in the top 8 by winning in the penalty shots in a game many saw as to determine who was going to lose to Spain. In the more anticipated game, the countries sharing the Iberian peninsula shared the pitch this afternoon for what many perceived as clash of titans. David Villa, who will be joining Barcelona in the next season for 50 million sterling pound, showed his worth when he compromised the resolute Portuguese defenses, and scored the decisive goal in the match, sending the ineffective Christiano Ronaldo packing.

July 5, 2010 
Brazil's loss to the Netherlands was unpredictable, easily avoidable, and unnecessary. While Argentina's loss to Germany was not beyond the realm of imagination, the margin - 4/0 - was certainly worth a pause. The South American traditional supremacy in Football space came under fire over the past couple of games, with the two titans, Brazil and Argentina, being sacrificed over the alter of soccer in two battles between style and tactic, passion and strategy.

Brazil against Netherlands, and Argentina against Germany's games were text book examples of how football is greatly a strategy game. Brazil dominated the first half of the game, scored the go ahead goal, and were frustrating the Dutch. However, their coach, Dunga made a fatal error in the second half; he asked his team to play deep defense and rely on counter attacks. Since defense was not Brazil forte, playing deep in their third had forced them to make errors that resulted in 2 silly goals for the Netherlands. Even though Brazil had 25 minutes to recover, which was plenty of time, Dunga, made another mistake of losing his cool and jumping up and down on the bench, transferring his anxiety to his players. The result was devastating. The players lost their composure, with a Brazilian player committing a red card worthy foul, which was purely emotional, angry Brazil had to play the rest of the game with 10 men only in front of cool Netherlands, as cool as the other side of the pillow!

Argentina lost the game before it even began, thanks to Maradona's faulty formation. He played 4-2-1-3 (2 wingers and one midfielder in the middle) against the formidable German 4-4-2 formation (with 4 midfielders). It was clear from the first few moments that the 4 German midfielders were dominating the midfield, neutralizing Messi (Argentina's only midfielder), and isolating Argentine's 3 strikers, who stayed in front watching most of the game unfold as spectators. German tactic was far more superior and dominating, even though they were playing with largely a young team. Joachim, the German coach, had masterfully dictated the terms of the game and scored the first goal in 6 minutes, and dominated since then. The sad part was that Maradona had no answer. he had no plan B after the whole world realized that plan A was not working. No one could play Germany with such thin formation. Yet, Argentina continued the formation in the second half, just to be brutally slaughtered by the German who showed them no mercy and 4 clean goals, while Joachim was laughing secretly at Maradonna's superstars.

July 8, 2010 
Paul the Octopus was right again! Spain wins!

The great moment came, so did Spain. The Almatadors showed us how to tame the German machine, and how when you hit a brick wall, you break through. Whereas, Germany had finally swallowed from the venom it had administered to its former opponents, defeat.

Spain was by far the better team in both skill and tactic. They controlled the ball and contained the Germans, who were mere shadows of the German team that crushed Argentina, England, and Australia. This is how it is done - winning Germany; by controlling the med-field and pushing the German defenses deep into their zone. the German 4-4-2 formation did little to counter the Spanish innovative 4-2-3-1 formation that controlled the midfield by having two rows of 5 players in the center 2/3. Spain utilized what they were famous for, the killer passing, which was passing the ball smartly and succinctly amongst themselves, frustrating their opponents. Germans were totally outplayed, outmaneuvered, and succumbed to Spain by one goal to nil. Even though, Spain's Pedro missed a glorious opportunity by the end of the game to make it 2-0, as a result of a selfish act of keeping the ball and not passing it to Torres, who was basking in freedom by the open German goal!

Now it is up to Netherlands to do what it does best; that is losing the final!

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Why Global Corporations Must Source Their Hotel Spend And Run A Reliable Global Hotel Program?

Recently, you may have heard that some corporate travel managers – of global corporations - are having second thoughts about going through the usual annual RFP process for their corporate hotel programs as they have been finding better rates, when booking online, than their corporate negotiated rates. A few have gone to state that they would consider giving up their entire RFP program for 2010, and rely solely on online booking portals and travel agencies.

In my opinion, that would be a mistake.

First, given what we have seen in 2009, I do understand their rationale, as most of us went through a lengthy RFP season during 2008 to secure negotiated rates for 2009 that, some of which rates, proved to be higher than what the economy dictated. As the economical situation continued to deteriorate early this year, hoteliers found no alternative to combat the hostile environment and gain market share except to cut their rates significantly. We have seen rates dropping to 2006-2007 levels in some cases. This enticed many business travelers, looking for bargains, to bypass the negotiated corporate programs, and book directly online. In some cases, travel managers, who realized that some of their negotiated rates were far higher than what the hoteliers were actually willing to accept, have returned to the negotiation table and re-negotiated their rates with the hotels.

As the world is still waiting for a decisive financial recovery, and all signs are indicating that the economy will not be turning around any time soon, business travel prospects for 2010 is still dismal. This environment is positioning both suppliers and buyers in a potentially confrontational situation. On one hand, suppliers are hesitant to lower their rates further, as they have reached low levels not seen in years. Any further drop in rates would not only jeopardize their profitability, but survival. On the other hand, corporate travel buyers are sharpening their knives for more rate cuts and aggressive negotiations during this season.

Other corporate buyers; however, are flirting with the idea of taking a different approach this year away from the normal hotel sourcing rituals. They are considering saving the time and effort (and money) usually spent during hotel negotiation season, and go online to procure travel directly. They believe that since the economy is not kind to travel vendors these days, hoteliers have no choice but to lower their rates during 2010. Hence, by not committing to a negotiated rate, they assume that they could benefit from the price-slashing spectacle they are expecting to see. They are betting that hotel rates will continue to drop as a falling knife in 2010.

As I mentioned earlier, I disagree with that approach. There are many reasons why corporations should have negotiated rates and reliable hotel programs in place for 2010. The following are seven main reasons why you must go through with your RFP this year:

1. Uncertainty. No one knows for sure when the economy will actually turn around. If we follow the analysts, they were predicting oil to hit $200 a barrel in mid-2008, and had no clue when the financial meltdown occurred. However, what we do know is that as soon as the economy turns around, hotel rates will be poised for a rapid increase, due to supply restrictions in 2008 and 2009, and the financial fatigue experienced by major chains. I would also add to the mix the impact of a lower US dollar on inflation in general. You may find online travel portals’ offers to be very attractive in a sliding economy, but they will not be that attractive when the economy rebounds.

2. Leverage. When you book online at a property, you are losing any leverage with that property. You are simply agreeing to whatever they are offering you at that time, and you are no different than Mr. Joe Random who is booking for his next vacation. Leverage will always enable you to get better deals, as you will be recognized by the property for all your business and room nights you are booking at its location.

3. Benchmarking. A critical component of any successful RFP for a hotel program is benchmarking bids and rates. How could you tell if the deal you are getting is actually a good deal or not? You need to go through the methodological process of benchmarking to understand the markets, and how rates are trending in each sub-market.

4. Amenities. You may have a very good rate online; however, negotiating deals with properties would give you the opportunity to include pertinent amenities to your travelers with the rates, like breakfast, internet access, parking, late cancellation, and so on. It is true that you may be able to get very cheap rates online, but if you read the fine print and restrictions, your traveler may end up paying far more than the asking price on a normal business trip.

5. Flexibility. Even though last room availability (LRA) negotiated rates seem to be flat fixed rates, many chains are actually offering dynamic pricing and the negotiated rate is simply a cap rate. For example, a property would offer you a $150 flat rate; however, if the corporate rate at the time of booking is lower than the negotiated rate, they will offer you the lower rate. Therefore, corporate travel buyers will not miss out on any opportunity should the rates fall below the negotiated rates; however, they will be protected should the rates creep higher.

6. Budgeting. Having a solid hotel program with clear and established reporting mechanisms and compliance will enable you to make better budgeting decisions and enjoy a better financial transparency. You need to be able to have room nights and rates projections for the year ahead. Something you will never have should you opt out of regular RFP process.

7. Relationships. Finally, it is always about building strategic relationships with your main vendors. Having a corporate hotel program will allow you to forge and nurture strategic partnerships with hotel partners that could prove to be beneficial during times that favor the sellers.

In conclusion, in a world full of uncertainty, you need to be able to control your second largest controllable expense item - that is T&E spend. The cornerstone of that is to adhere to best procurement practices in sourcing travel commodities.

Lululemon - Stretch Your Portfolio With A Growing Retailer

This is one of my favourite growth stories. I followed this stock (TSX: LLL, NASDAQ: LULU) when the IPO came out in 2007. I got in at $35, then watched this stock shooting up to $60's until it tanked during the recession to less than $10. Today, it is fluctuating between $37-$45 (really depending on the daily news).

This is a great Canadian brand that just started expanding in the USA, Australia, and other international markets. The company designs, manufactures, and retail yoga line of sports clothing for women and men (now they are experimenting a teenagers line in Vancouver). The fabric they use in their apparel is made of some sort of sea weed texture that they claim to be comfortable and flexible for yoga enthusiasts. Yoga or not, today women and men in Canada wear Lululemon apparel as casual sports wear. It is considered the high-end label for sports wear, and women are not afraid to be seen wearing Lululemon products when they go shopping, walking, strolling, or performing any kind of social activity. My wife tells me that Lululemon is the best, high end sports apparel, bypassing anything produced by Nike or Adidas, and the reason is that they have fantastic fabric, unique brand, and cool designs.

Granted this brand is more known in Canada, but this is why it is such a great growth story. The new CEO was a top executive at Starbucks during the time SBUX was working on converting coffee drinking into a life style. I have no doubt that Lululemon will become the SBUX of sports apparel.

The growth is evident by the quarterly reports that keep showing growing earnings, revenue at double digits, even through tough times. They are expanding in the USA, Australia at an increasing rates. The stock will continue to appreciate as this company keeps on opening new stores, and satisfying its current customers with new and innovative designs and fabrics.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

IMAX Offering A Great Growth Investment

I am long on IMAX, which is the company licensing the IMAX technology (3D large screen tech in Cinemas). This company is set to benefit from the 3D frenzy that is shaping the future of entertainment. It has been expanding its joint ventures in North America and globally, operating and expanding in 50 countries or more. The earnings are set to explode multiple times over the upcoming quarters. With Avatar being the top grossing movie of all time, during the recession, it really shows that IMAX earnings are potentially defensive during recession, and aggressive in expansion times.

This company continues to show signs of growth that appeals to long-term investor like myself. This morning they posted a press release stating that they have increased their gross box office by 37% from same period last year. The key drivers for growth for this company:
- New JV's and deals to open new theaters/licenses in the world; this year they have signed deals for 89 theaters as of today (they had only 35 deals in all 2009)
- Growth in the demand for IMAX experience from movie go-ers; the average per-screen revenue has gone up by 13% (excluding Avatar results)

I think this is the ingredients for a healthy growth stock that could multiply in value of the next five years...

Here is the most recent press release by IMAX:

IMAX Corporation Generates $115 Million in DMR Gross Box Office for the Second Quarter of 2010, a 37% Increase Over Last Year; Has Announced Deals for 89 IMAX(R) Theatres Year-To-Date

TORONTO and LOS ANGELES, Jul 7, 2010 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) --IMAX Corporation (Nasdaq:IMAX) (TSX:IMX) today announced that for the second quarter ended June 30, 2010, IMAX DMR(R) gross box office worldwide was approximately $115.0 million, an approximate 37% increase over last year's second quarter box office of approximately $84.2 million. For the six months ended June 30, 2010, gross box office from Hollywood DMR titles released to the worldwide IMAX(R) theatre network was $347.2 million, compared to $112.2 million in the first six months of 2009. In addition, the Company commented that it has announced deals for 89 IMAX systems year-to-date, compared to 35 for all of 2009.

"The drivers of our business model and long term growth continue to be network expansion and compelling programming," said Richard L. Gelfond, CEO of IMAX Corporation. "This year to date, we have already signed deals for 89 theatres, and we also continue to drive our per screen productivity. Even excluding Avatar completely from our 2010 results, our per-screen average through the first six months is $647,000, a 13% increase over the same period in the prior year."

Mr. Gelfond continued, "The level of signings experienced year-to-date is positioning us for significant network growth in 2010, 2011 and beyond. Every incremental new theatre signed will drive revenues from the sales of the systems and recurring revenues from theatre maintenance, joint revenue sharing theatres and future box office royalties."

IMAX will announce its full second quarter and six months financial results on Thursday, July 29, 2010.